U.S. Inflation Rose 0.4% in October, Above Forecasts
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, a slower monthly increase than September’s 0.6% but higher than economists had forecast. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also increased 0.3%.
October inflation exceeded forecasts
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% from September to October on a seasonally adjusted basis. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a 0.3% increase. Core CPI rose 0.3%, also above the 0.2% forecast in the Reuters poll. Those figures make October’s report a hotter reading than markets had anticipated, even as the headline monthly pace eased from September.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a 12-month inflation rate for October. A lapse in federal appropriations in October 2025 prevented the agency from collecting the survey data needed to calculate a year-over-year comparison for most CPI series. The missing comparison means the monthly change is the clearest official measure for this release.
Food and shelter contributed to the increase
Food prices increased 0.5% over the month, with groceries up 0.4% and restaurant meals up 0.5%. Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the all-items index, according to the BLS. Energy prices rose 0.7%, a much smaller monthly increase than September’s 5.2% jump.
Price movements varied across categories. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2%, while new vehicle prices rose 0.2%. The BLS reported that gasoline increased 1.0% after seasonal adjustment, although its unadjusted price index declined 0.7% during the month.
Why the missing annual comparison matters
Monthly CPI changes show how the index moved from one month to the next; annual comparisons usually help put that movement in a longer context. Because the October 2025 base is unavailable, readers should not treat October’s 0.4% monthly rise as an annual inflation rate. The BLS says the next CPI release, covering November, is scheduled for December 10.
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Sources
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2026 CPI release; Associated Press, “Inflation ran hotter than expected last month”; Reuters report via MarketScreener.
