Families living on Cambodia’s Tonle Sap lake face another difficult season as El Niño is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions across Southeast Asia. The lake’s annual rise and fall supports floating communities and one of the region’s most productive freshwater fisheries, but drought, disrupted rainfall and changes to Mekong flows are putting pressure on livelihoods.

Why Tonle Sap’s seasonal cycle matters

About 1.5 million people live on or around Tonle Sap, where homes and daily routines adapt to changing water levels. In a typical monsoon season, rising water from the Mekong flows into the lake, expanding its floodplain and replenishing fisheries. The annual cycle also creates a landscape where boats, floating markets and fishing shape everyday life.

Associated Press reporting from Chong Kneas describes residents whose housing and income depend on those shifts. When drought weakens the seasonal flooding, fishing households can lose both access to water-based work and the farmland many use to supplement fishing income.

El Niño compounds existing pressures

The Food and Agriculture Organization identified Cambodia as being at high risk of severe drought during the 2026 El Niño cycle. Its satellite-based assessment estimated that about 127,300 hectares of agricultural and pastureland could be affected. The FAO finding provides a wider measure of the risk facing rural households beyond the lake itself.

Climate conditions are one part of a longer strain. Mekong dams and sand mining can alter river flows, while increasingly erratic rainfall makes the lake’s seasonal flood pulse less predictable. The combination matters because fisheries, farming and transport around Tonle Sap all rely on water arriving at the right time and in sufficient volume.

What to watch next

The forecast does not determine how severe the coming season will be, and the effects will depend on rainfall and river conditions as the year progresses. For communities around Tonle Sap, the key indicators are whether Mekong inflows restore the lake’s seasonal expansion and whether drought leaves fishing and crop production under further pressure.

Sources: Associated Press reporting on Tonle Sap communities; Food and Agriculture Organization drought-risk assessment.