WMO Says 2026 Among Four Warmest Years as El Niño Adds Heat Risk
The World Meteorological Organization says 2026 is on track to rank among the four warmest years in records dating to the 19th century. Its update, released Monday as COP31 opened in Antalya, puts the January–September global temperature average 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline and says a strengthening El Niño could lift the year-end figure further.
What the WMO temperature estimate shows
The 1.47°C figure is a January-through-September average, not a final full-year result. It combines nine internationally recognized datasets. The WMO says 2023 through 2026 are the four warmest years in its record, while the 2026 final State of the Global Climate report is scheduled for March 2027.
The agency’s comparison puts the nine-month 2026 reading close to the full-year averages for 2023 and 2025, and below the 2024 record. That distinction matters: the latest ranking is already notable, but the measurement window is incomplete and the final value may change as the remaining months are added.
Why El Niño matters for the coming months
El Niño is a natural Pacific climate pattern that shifts heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. The WMO estimates it typically raises the annual global average by about 0.1°C to 0.2°C, with its strongest effect on global temperatures often appearing in the year after it develops. The current event is forecast to continue into early 2027.
The WMO describes El Niño as a risk multiplier for heatwaves, tropical cyclones and heavy rain, while emphasizing that effects vary by region. It says warming driven by greenhouse gases is the longer-running background trend; the natural pattern can add a temporary boost to global temperatures.
The climate update was released alongside the opening of COP31. The Globuzz previously reported on the Antalya climate talks and the risks facing countries at the summit; the new WMO report adds updated measurements from this year through September.
Sources
World Meteorological Organization: State of the Climate 2026; Reuters: COP31 summit opens in Turkey; Le Monde: 2026 among the hottest years on record.
